Donald J. Trump posted a colorful graphic on social media this week, suggesting that he was headed for victory in the presidential election. The graphic showed that Mr. Trump had a 64 percent chance of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris next month — a much rosier picture for him than …
Read More »Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed.
Organizations that track election polls, including The New York Times, currently show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump in a dead heat. Election forecasters like FiveThirtyEight, which consider the polls and other data to calculate the candidates’ odds of victory, also see the race as essentially …
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