Tag Archives: Polls and Public Opinion

What should we think as Donald Trump urges people to vote in January, confuses places and names, fumbles for words, simplifies his speech patterns, describes recent experiences that did not happen and in public seems increasingly vulgar, menacing and unfiltered? When President Biden showed his age and stumbled through the …

Donald J. Trump posted a colorful graphic on social media this week, suggesting that he was headed for victory in the presidential election. The graphic showed that Mr. Trump had a 64 percent chance of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris next month — a much rosier picture for him than …

Organizations that track election polls, including The New York Times, currently show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump in a dead heat. Election forecasters like FiveThirtyEight, which consider the polls and other data to calculate the candidates’ odds of victory, also see the race as essentially …

In Westport, Conn., a 35-year-old who works for an investment firm is holding off on making any financial investments until after the election. Across the country, in Kenosha, Wis., a man who works in sales said he would love to buy a house and get out of his rental, but …

Donald J. Trump turned his back to the crowd and stared up at the screen. Ominous music rang out. For the next minute and a half, the former president and his audience in Atlanta stood and silently watched clips of news reports of undocumented immigrants committing horrific crimes. When the …

In 2008, Barack Obama and his new running mate, Joe Biden, kicked off their general-election campaign in Beaver County, Pa., a culturally conservative area northwest of Pittsburgh where the shuttering of steel mills years earlier still stung. In 2020, Mr. Biden was in Beaver County hours before Election Day to …

Cindy Jager was the lone worker on duty in the crammed aisles of an old-fashioned variety store overflowing with hardware and party supplies and fake pumpkins. When I came across her, she was carefully rearranging cleaning products on a back shelf of the shop in Walker, Mich. When I brought …

Hosted by Michelle CottleRoss Douthat and Carlos Lozada Listen to and follow ‘Matter of Opinion’Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube | iHeartRadio Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have been neck and neck in the polls for weeks. But past elections have proved the polls wrong. Can we …

The 2024 election could be won or lost on the strength of the Black vote, which could in turn be won or lost based on the strength of the American economy. So it is no surprise that candidates are paying a lot of attention — and lip service — to …

During the pandemic, there was a rise in violent crime. But by 2023, violent crime was near its lowest level in over 50 years. But that year, Gallup found that 77 percent of Americans said they believed that crime was increasing. I hear that in my everyday life. People talk …