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Follow the latest updates on the 2024 election.
The presidential race just keeps getting tighter.
With three weeks to go, The New York Times’s polling average shows Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump essentially tied across the seven key battleground states, with the two separated by less than one percentage point in five of the seven.
It’s hard to think of any election when so many critical states were so close in the polls at this stage.
By our reckoning, 2004 was the last election when the polls showed a candidate leading in the pivotal states by around one point — George W. Bush’s edge in states like Ohio and Wisconsin. But even then, he had a discernible if still narrow edge in the Electoral College: John Kerry needed to sweep most of the close states to prevail. The polling couldn’t really be characterized as a tie, like the polls today.
Before 2004? There’s the 2000 election, of course, but the polls weren’t quite as close as the actual result. Looking even further back, it’s hard to find anything. There has never been an election with so many polls showing such a close race.
Is the race really tightening?
The polling averages are tighter than ever, but that doesn’t necessarily mean there’s been a huge shift — or even any shift — in the race.
The biggest shifts in the average this week were in Michigan and Wisconsin. And in this case, “biggest” does not mean “big.” Mr. Trump gained a single point according to our averages — the kind of movement that may feel seismic in such a closely divided and stable election, but wouldn’t be worthy of much note in previous cycles. It’s also a shift that’s small enough that one or two high-quality polls for Ms. Harris next week could quickly send her numbers back up. Indeed, it was only one or two high-quality polls that brought her numbers down.
New York Times swing state polling averages
Wisconsin›
Harris <1 Oct. 40% 50% 48% 49%
Michigan›
Harris <1 40% 50% 48% 49%
Pennsylvania›
Harris +1 Oct. 40% 50% 48% 49%
Nevada›
Harris <1 40% 50% 48% 48%
Georgia›
Trump <1 Oct. 40% 50% 48% 49%
North Carolina›
Trump <1 40% 50% 48% 49%
Arizona›
Trump +2 Oct. 40% 50% 47% 49%
If the polls underestimate Mr. Trump yet again, even by a hair, he would easily win the Northern battleground states and therefore the presidency. But the opposite could be true: Polls underestimated Democrats in 2022, and Ms. Harris could win easily if they do that again, even slightly.
Electoral votes counting only states where a candidate leads by 3 or more:
226 Harris 219 Trump
Electoral votes if current polling translates perfectly to results (it won’t):
276 Harris 262 Trump
Electoral votes if state polls miss in the same way they did in 2020:
226 Harris 312 Trump
Electoral votes if state polls miss in the same way they did in 2022:
303 Harris 235 Trump Includes polling as of Oct. 13. See the latest polling averages »
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