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Organizations that track election polls, including The New York Times, currently show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump in a dead heat. Election forecasters like FiveThirtyEight, which consider the polls and other data to calculate the candidates’ odds of victory, also see the race as essentially tied.
Another set of websites has a different take. Prediction markets, which allow users to bet real money on election results — more than $100 million on one site alone — are much more bullish on Mr. Trump. These markets are drawing attention, but are they more accurate than the polls, as proponents claim? Do the markets know something that the polls don’t?
Researchers have tried to answer this question over the last few election cycles, though the results have been mixed. Advocates and skeptics agree that there are pros and cons to markets when compared with poll-based forecasts. Markets can sometimes be just as accurate in predicting election outcomes — but there are also good reasons not to take them at face value.
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Betting markets’ share prices are bullish on Trump…
… while forecasters’ odds show a closer race.
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