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Russia has recaptured a few villages in its western borderlands that Ukraine invaded over the summer, threatening Kyiv’s hold on territory it views as crucial leverage for pushing Moscow toward negotiations to end the war.
In recent days, Russian troops have intensified efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the bulge of territory they seized in Russia’s western Kursk region, launching several assaults spearheaded by armored vehicles. Battlefield maps compiled by independent groups using satellite images and combat footage indicate that Russian forces have driven a wedge into the western edge of the Ukrainian bulge, recapturing at least three villages.
“In general, the situation in Kursk is not so good,” DeepState, a group with close ties to the Ukrainian Army that analyzes combat footage, said on Sunday. Ukrainian forces “are taking stabilization measures, but it is extremely difficult to reclaim what has been lost.”
Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst for the Finland-based Black Bird Group, said that some elements of Russian units had “managed to advance relatively far into the Ukrainian rear, which caused issues and losses for Ukraine.”
Ukraine still holds roughly 300 square miles of Russian territory, according to the Black Bird Group, down from about 400 square miles in the first weeks of its cross-border assault in the Kursk region, which was launched in early August.
The offensive had two primary objectives: to force the Kremlin to divert troops from other parts of the front to respond to the attack, thereby easing pressure on Ukrainian forces; and to capture territory that Moscow will seek to reclaim, potentially forcing it to come to the negotiating table.
While the first goal appears to have failed so far — with the Kremlin mainly deploying reserves from within Russia while intensifying assaults in eastern Ukraine — officials in Kyiv have clung to the second goal as part of their so-called “victory plan” to push Russia into peace negotiations.
The Kursk offensive is one of “the stages to end the war,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a news conference in late August.
But each Russian advance in the Kursk region risks diminishing the value of this bargaining chip.
“The Russian counterattacks are constantly reducing the political significance of the Ukrainian-controlled area in Kursk,” Mr. Kastehelmi said. “If the current trend continues, the Ukrainians may need to reconsider their presence in the area and the future of the whole operation.”
Ukraine first invaded the Kursk region on Aug. 6, swiftly capturing dozens of villages and settlements, including the small town of Sudzha. It took Russia several weeks to stabilize the situation by sending in reinforcements to halt the Ukrainian advance. Military analysts and U.S. officials said Russia’s response was initially slow and scattered as the Kremlin determined which military and security forces should lead the counterattacks.
Then, in mid-September, Russia launched a first wave of counterattacks that allowed its troops to capture at least one village, Snagost, and several other settlements located on the western flank of the Ukrainian bulge.
It launched a second wave of assaults last week, pushing further on the western flank and reclaiming about 20 square miles of territory, according to independent experts tracking the Russian advance based on geolocated combat footage. They have now recaptured the village of Novoivanovka and have reached the outskirts of the village of Olgovka.
Ukrainian officials and soldiers have generally been tight-lipped about the situation in the Kursk region in order to preserve operational security. But Mr. Zelensky acknowledged the intense fighting in a message posted on social media on Monday.
“For five days now, the Russians have been trying to break through our defenses in the Kursk region,” he wrote, adding that Ukrainian troops are “holding on and counterattacking.”
Mr. Kastehelmi, the military expert, took a more cautious view. “It’s clear that the Ukrainian lines don’t seem to hold very well,” he said.
He noted that Ukraine’s army does not appear yet to have built any large-scale fortifications in the area, complicating its defense, and added that the western flank currently under Russian attack consists of relatively open terrain, with few urban centers that the Ukrainians can use to entrench themselves in.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said last week that the Russian military may have intensified its assaults in the Kursk region before rainy weather in the fall and winter make the terrain muddy and therefore less practicable for assaults with armored vehicles, leaving more time for the Ukrainians to fortify their positions in the area.
“Russian forces may perceive a closing window of opportunity to eliminate the Ukrainian incursion” into the Kursk region, the institute said.
Whether Ukraine will manage to hold on to the territory it controls in the Kursk region remains to be seen.
The Ukrainian offensive there has stretched its human and matériel resources, which are sorely needed elsewhere on the front to fend off Russian attacks that continue unabated.
A senior U.S. military official said early this month, before Russia’s latest counterattacks, that Ukraine would be able to maintain its position there for “several months and potentially beyond” because Moscow suffers from logistical issues and disorganization of the command structure in the area. He spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security issues.
Ukraine might hope to use the territory it holds in the Kursk region as a bargaining chip in peace negotiations, to trade for land seized by Russia in Ukraine. But Moscow has yet to signal any willingness to engage in talks while it has the upper hand on the battlefield.
Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington.
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